China’s Manufacturing Sector Outperforms as Global Economic Recovery Gains Momentum
By It was expected that China's manufacturing industry would experience significant growth following the lifting of stringent restrictions.[0] The Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are devoted to promoting economic revival through enhancing domestic consumption.[0] The IHS Markit reported the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data at 51.6, higher than the expectations of 50.2 and the former release of 49.2 two months ago.[1] According to data collected by Caixin, the nation's manufacturing activity saw the biggest improvement in over a decade.[2] The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index registered a score of 52.6, an increase from the previous 50.1.[2] Analysts' expectations were surpassed by the stronger figure.[2]
Moreover, the Non-Manufacturing PMI was also higher than expected. It came in at 56.3, which was higher than the forecast of 55.0 and the previous reading of 54.4.[3] This suggests that the services sector is also doing well, which is a positive sign for the overall economic recovery.
In addition to the Chinese economic data, other manufacturing PMI figures across the globe have been released as well. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI Final Estimate for February came in at 47.3 versus an initial reading of 47.8, and construction spending was down 0.1% in January after a revised 0.7% loss in the prior month.[4] In Japan, the February Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 47.7, down from January’s 48.9.[4] This is the most dismal reading since September 2020.[1] The Eurozone February Manufacturing PMI stood at 48.5, in line with expectations.[5]
In the U.S., all eyes are focused on the ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to come in at 48.0 versus 47.4 last month.[6] The price paid was 44.5 last month and is expected at 45.1 this month.[7] Closer home, the EU harmonized measure of inflation is expected to rise by 0.5% month over month for a 9.0% year-over-year increase.[8] Finally, Germany reported a 2k rise in unemployment last month, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%.[8]
Overall, the data suggests that the global economic recovery is continuing to gain momentum and that central banks are likely to continue raising interest rates in the months to come.
0. “AUD/USD extends V-shape recovery to 0.6760 as upbeat Caixin PMI outweighs Aussie CPI” FXStreet, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-extends-v-shape-recovery-to-06760-as-upbeat-caixin-pmi-outweighs-aussie-cpi-202303010609
1. “China Data Lifts Sentiment, Dollar in Retreat” Action Forex, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/488702-china-data-lifts-sentiment-dollar-in-retreat/
2. “China A50 analysis after soaring to a key resistance level” InvestorsObserver, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-news/8452147841758755
3. “CHN50 in uptrend as PMIs show expansion” FXCM, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxcm.com/uk/insights/chn50-in-uptrend-as-pmis-show-expansion
4. “Benchmark Treasury yields approach 4% as China's economic rebound adds to inflationary pressures” msnNOW, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/benchmark-treasury-yields-approach-4percent-as-chinas-economic-rebound-adds-to-inflationary-pressures/ar-AA185bem
5. “European Shares Gain On China Optimism” RTTNews, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.rttnews.com/3347426/european-shares-gain-on-china-optimism.aspx
6. “S&P Futures Tick Higher As China Recovery Overshadow Rate Hike Worries” Barchart, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.barchart.com/story/news/14660037/s-p-futures-tick-higher-as-china-recovery-overshadow-rate-hike-worries
7. “US stocks trade modestly lower ahead of PMI/ISM data” ForexLive, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-trade-modestly-lower-ahead-of-pmiism-data-20230301/
8. “Doubt Chinese Data, But Its Stronger-Than-Expected PMI Lifts Risk Assets” Seeking Alpha, 1 Mar. 2023, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583291-chinese-data-stronger-than-expected-pmi-lifts-risk-assets
