Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. housing market outlook upwards, expecting U.S. home prices to fall just 2.6% in 2023, leading to a 6% peak-to-trough decline. According to the investment bank, larger declines are expected across the Pacific Coast and Southwest regions, with more modest declines across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that U.S. home prices, as measured by the FHFA US House Price Index, will fall 0.6% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, while Realtor.com predicts that the median U.S. home sales price will fall 4% in 2023, and Zillow forecasts that U.S. home values will fall 1.1% from November 2022 to November 2023.
Pantheon Macroeconomics expects U.S. existing home prices to fall by around 20%, and KPMG economist Yelena Maleyev said home prices could fall 20% in 2023. Redfin expects home prices to continue growing modestly in Miami and Baltimore, with an expected increase below 1 percent, while Philadelphia, New York, St. Louis, and Chicago will report home-price declines of less than 5 percent.
The mid-2000s housing crisis saw home prices across the US fall around 27%, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. The decrease in this situation would be comparable to the decrease experienced 15 years ago during the Great Recession. Goldman Sachs has identified that Miami and Baltimore are expected to see housing price increases both this year and next, while San Jose, Austin, Phoenix, and San Diego are projected to be stung with peak-to-trough declines of 25%, which would rival the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis.
0. “Goldman Sachs makes a bold housing market call—when the investment bank expects U.S. home prices to bottom” Fortune, 6 Feb. 2023, https://fortune.com/2023/02/06/housing-market-bold-call-by-goldman-sachs-home-prices-to-bottom-soon-2023/
1. “Goldman Sachs notices a crash for home values in these 4 cities” Techstory, 25 Jan. 2023, https://techstory.in/goldman-sachs-notices-a-crash-for-home-values-in-these-4-cities
2. “House Prices Will Rise Fastest in These 6 Cities” Newsweek, 26 Jan. 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/house-prices-will-rise-fastest-these-6-cities-1776721