IMF Optimistic on Russia’s Growth in 2023 and 2024
By The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued one of its most positive predictions for Russia’s economic expansion in 2023, expecting a 0.3% growth rate for this year.[0] This is well above the February consensus among Russian economists (decline of 1.5%) and the official projections of the Russian authorities: the Ministry of Economic Development currently predicts a fall of 0.8%, while the Central Bank expects a drop of up to 4%.[0]
The IMF’s typically conservative outlook on the global economy is also much more positive, anticipating 2.9% growth due to “unexpectedly stable” dynamics.[1] For Russia, the IMF predicts even higher growth of 2.1% in 2024, credited to the stability of Russia's oil exports and the redirection of trade from sanctioned to non-sanctioned countries.[2]
For 2023 to meet the IMF's prediction, there needs to be a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4%.[2] According to a Telegram channel run by Bloomberg Economics’ Alexander Isakov, if Russia’s economy is to live up to the IMF’s expectations, output needs to increase by 0.4% every quarter from the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of 2023.[1] Isakov believes this is realistic.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its estimates for China's growth rate from 4.4% to 5.2%, and for the United[2] Germany is in a precarious position, on the brink of recession, and forecasted to grow by just 0.1% in 2023. In contrast, the UK has already entered recession and is the only leading economy predicted to contract, by 0.6%, in 2023.[2]
Central Bank analysts credit Russia's economic recovery to the stability of the banking system, rising prices for falling export volumes, redirection of exports towards Asia, an effective reshaping of logistics chains, and government support. Russia's business sector has seen a resurgence, buoyed by governmental investment in the economy.[2]
The International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, expressed optimism due to the secure post-Covid reopening of China and the return of growth among developing countries, such as India and China.[1]
0. “IMF predicts Russian economy to rebound in 2023” The Bell, 7 Feb. 2023, https://thebell.io/en/imf-predicts-russian-economy-to-rebound-in-2023-2/
1. “IMF predicts Russian economy to rebound in 2023” The Bell, 4 Feb. 2023, https://thebell.io/en/imf-predicts-russian-economy-to-rebound-in-2023
2. “IMF issues Russian economic growth outlook that is more optimistic than Bank of Russia's” bne IntelliNews, 6 Feb. 2023, https://www.bne.eu/imf-issues-russian-economic-growth-outlook-that-is-more-optimistic-than-bank-of-russia-s-269012
