January Employment Data to Affect AUD/USD – Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.5%
By On Thursday, February 16, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will be releasing its January employment figures.[0] This data is expected to be a key catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders, as the country seeks to add 20,000 new job positions after losing 14,600 in December.[1] The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%, while the Participation Rate is seen unchanged at 66.6%.[2] Alongside monthly employment numbers, the country will also publish February Consumer Inflation Expectations, which is foreseen at 5.6%.[2]
From the three months to December, the unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, 0.1% higher than the previous period. The participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 66.5% in January, while it had fallen 0.2 percentage points to 66.6% in December.[3] Additionally, the jobless rate climbed to 3.7% in January from 3.5%.
In the UK, the number of payrolled employees rose 0.3% or 102,000 persons compared to December last year.[4] The jobless rate was 0.2% below pre-pandemic levels and total pay was down 3.1% in terms of annual growth/decline.
For the Aussie jobs report, economists and researchers at six major banks expect a rebound in job growth, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.5%. This would confirm the underlying employment recovery momentum has continued despite the contraction seen at the end of last year.[0] It is probable that the amount of hours worked has increased since contracting in November and December.[5]
Overall, labour-market data should confirm the growth in economic activity and inflation pressures from the labour market, which will support the RBA's tightening campaign.[5]
0. “Australian jobs report due soon – preview” ForexLive, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-jobs-report-due-soon-preview-20230215/
1. “When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-australian-employment-report-and-how-could-it-affect-aud-usd-202302152335
2. “Australian Employment Preview: Better figures in the docket, doubtful impact on RBA” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/australian-employment-preview-better-figures-in-the-docket-doubtful-impact-on-rba-202302151424
3. “Jobless rate unexpectedly jumps to 3.7 per cent” The Queenslander, 16 Feb. 2023, https://theqldr.com.au/economy-business-and-finance/2023/02/16/economy-225/
4. “UK payrolled employees rose 102k in Jan, unemployment rate at 3.7% in Dec” Action Forex, 14 Feb. 2023, https://www.actionforex.com/featured/486249-uk-payrolled-employees-rose-102k-in-jan-unemployment-rate-at-3-7-in-dec/
5. “Australian Employment Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, a January rebound” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-employment-preview-forecasts-from-six-major-banks-a-january-rebound-202302151403
