January Employment Data to Affect AUD/USD – Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.5%
On Thursday, February 16, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will be releasing its January employment figures. This data is expected to be a key catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders, as the country seeks to add 20,000 new job positions after losing 14,600 in December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%, while the Participation Rate is seen unchanged at 66.6%. Alongside monthly employment numbers, the country will also publish February Consumer Inflation Expectations, which is foreseen at 5.6%.
From the three months to December, the unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, 0.1% higher than the previous period. The participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 66.5% in January, while it had fallen 0.2 percentage points to 66.6% in December. Additionally, the jobless rate climbed to 3.7% in January from 3.5%.
In the UK, the number of payrolled employees rose 0.3% or 102,000 persons compared to December last year. The jobless rate was 0.2% below pre-pandemic levels and total pay was down 3.1% in terms of annual growth/decline.
For the Aussie jobs report, economists and researchers at six major banks expect a rebound in job growth, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.5%. This would confirm the underlying employment recovery momentum has continued despite the contraction seen at the end of last year. It is probable that the amount of hours worked has increased since contracting in November and December.
Overall, labour-market data should confirm the growth in economic activity and inflation pressures from the labour market, which will support the RBA's tightening campaign.
0. “Australian jobs report due soon – preview” ForexLive, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-jobs-report-due-soon-preview-20230215/
1. “When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-australian-employment-report-and-how-could-it-affect-aud-usd-202302152335
2. “Australian Employment Preview: Better figures in the docket, doubtful impact on RBA” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/australian-employment-preview-better-figures-in-the-docket-doubtful-impact-on-rba-202302151424
3. “Jobless rate unexpectedly jumps to 3.7 per cent” The Queenslander, 16 Feb. 2023, https://theqldr.com.au/economy-business-and-finance/2023/02/16/economy-225/
4. “UK payrolled employees rose 102k in Jan, unemployment rate at 3.7% in Dec” Action Forex, 14 Feb. 2023, https://www.actionforex.com/featured/486249-uk-payrolled-employees-rose-102k-in-jan-unemployment-rate-at-3-7-in-dec/
5. “Australian Employment Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, a January rebound” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-employment-preview-forecasts-from-six-major-banks-a-january-rebound-202302151403
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