Net Zero Emissions: Analysis of Global Pledges Ahead of COP27
By In the run-up to the COP27 climate conference in Egypt, more than 80 countries have pledged to reach net zero emissions around mid-century. Most Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations have set 2050 as the target year for achieving net-zero emissions, while developing countries plan to get there a decade or two later. China and India have pledged to reach net zero by 2060 and 2070, respectively.[0]
Wood Mackenzie has recently published its inaugural edition of the Global Net Zero Pledges Case Scenario, analyzing 19 major countries and regions, as well as key end-use sectors, to assess the implications of the pledges.[1] The report reveals that compared with the analyst company's base case, power demand expands by about 40% under the pledges scenario, with green hydrogen the single largest source of incremental growth by 2050.[1] Under the pledges scenario, 60% of low-carbon hydrogen demand is attributed to the US, China, and India.[0]
New vehicle sales are electric, increasing rapidly across both the passenger and commercial sectors.[0] Delivering the electrification of road transport requires a substantial build-out of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure, with charging outlets reaching over 750 million units by 2050.[1]
Oil demand declines to 49 million barrels per day (mb/d) under the pledges scenario, driven by electrification and the deployment of emerging technologies, especially in the OECD countries.[1] Bioenergy expands rapidly to meet decarbonization goals in the maritime sector, with oil still accounting for the highest share of bunkering and bioenergy reaching a 30% share by 2050.[1] Coal demand is 30% lower than in Woodmac’s base case, with unabated coal generation in the power sector seeing the largest decline.[0]
Under the pledges scenario, battery demand increases sevenfold, leading to a substantial increase in raw materials despite advances in battery technology.[0] Hydrogen production reaches 500 to 630 million tons per annum under the pledges and net-zero scenarios, respectively, with international trade facilitating hydrogen adoption.[0] Carbon removals reach 6 Bt, almost three times higher than in Woodmac’s Energy Transition Outlook.[0]
Achieving Net Zero will necessitate unprecedented levels of innovation and investment.[2] Utilizing open and shared data together with open source tools will be imperative for successful collaboration.[2] However, the world falls well short of the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement under the pledges scenario, with the remaining carbon budget for a 1.[0]
0. “Woodmac Analyses Net Zero Pledges Of Major Countries” Rigzone News, 9 Feb. 2023, https://www.rigzone.com/news/woodmac_analyses_net_zero_pledges_of_major_countries-09-feb-2023-172021-article
1. “How Are The Leading Countries Faring On The Path To Net Zero?” Forbes, 7 Feb. 2023, https://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmackenzie/2023/02/07/how-are-the-leading-countries-faring-on-the-path-to-net-zero
2. “Net Zero: A $7tr open data problem” BusinessGreen, 9 Feb. 2023, https://www.businessgreen.com/feature/4074236/net-zero-usd7tr-open
