Revised December Consumer Prices Show Easing Inflation
By Newly released data has shown that December consumer prices rose from the month before instead of falling as previously thought.[0] The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December to +0.1% from -0.1%, as well as updating seasonal adjustment factors.[1] The Core Consumer Price Index, which does not include food and energy, saw its December and November numbers rise by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.[0]
Andrew Patterson, senior economist in Vanguard’s investment strategy group, noted that “We continue to believe that inflation is going to grind down over the course of the year”.[0] Meanwhile, William Blair analyst Richard de Chazal wrote in a note Friday that the new adjustments mean the 2023 CPI report will be based on consumer spending patterns that took place in 2021, which makes the data more timely and relevant.[0]
Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist, noted in a Twitter thread that “the U.S. statistical agencies work extremely hard to measure and seasonally adjust the data accurately to reflect what where once considered normal season variations”.[0] She added that “those shifts, coupled with the rapid pace at which the economy is currently shifting has made measuring current economic conditions more difficult”.[0]
Disinflation refers to a decrease in the rate of inflation, rather than an increase.[2] The adjusted data for 2022 has shown that there was less disinflation in October and November than cited in all the hoopla about it and that there has been worsening inflation in December.[0] The Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January are set to be made public on Tuesday.[3]
0. “Bad news: Consumer prices actually climbed in December -” KTEN, 10 Feb. 2023, https://www.kten.com/story/48363559/december-consumer-prices-didnt-actually-fall
1. “US: December monthly CPI revised to +0.1% from -0.1%” FXStreet, 10 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-december-monthly-cpi-revised-to-01-from-01-202302101346
2. “CPI Revised Higher For October Through December” Seeking Alpha, 13 Feb. 2023, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577714-cpi-revised-higher-october-through-december
3. “Revised data shows Consumer Price Index numbers rose last December – KNBN NewsCenter1” Newscenter1.tv, 11 Feb. 2023, https://www.newscenter1.tv/revised-data-shows-consumer-price-index-numbers-rose-last-december
