Russia’s Economy Defies Worst Fears with Recovery on the Horizon
By Russia’s economy is expected to return to growth this year, with a forecast of a budget deficit of some 4.5-5 trillion rubles ($60.7-67.4 billion), or 3-3.3% of GDP, even without new shocks due to a higher volatility in its oil and gas revenues.[0] This forecast was revealed in a macroeconomic forecast by Russia’s Expert RA credit rating agency.[0]
The EBRD has revised its prediction for Russia's economic growth in 2022, now expecting a 3.5% rise instead of their earlier forecast. However, their prediction for a 3% decrease in GDP in 2023 has remained the same.[1] Even with the increased lack of transparency since the invasion, the Russian economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of the sanctions after the government and central bank took swift action.[2]
Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Bank of Russia, anticipates that the economy will start to expand again sometime during the middle of 2020.[3] Russia’s economy contracted by 2.1 percent last year, the government's statistics agency Rosstat said Monday, absorbing Western sanctions over Moscow's military intervention in Ukraine better than expected.[4]
Overall, Russia’s economy appears to be on the road to recovery and is defying the worst fears of a major recession. This is thanks to the swift action taken by the government and central bank, as well as the country’s surging commodity exports.
0. “Russia's Budget Deficit May Reach 3-3.3% Of GDP In 2023” MENAFN.COM, 14 Feb. 2023, https://menafn.com/1105568410/Russias-Budget-Deficit-May-Reach-3-33-Of-GDP-In-2023
1. “EBRD maintains Russia 3% GDP contraction forecast for 2023” bne IntelliNews , 16 Feb. 2023, https://www.intellinews.com/ebrd-maintains-russia-3-gdp-contraction-forecast-for-2023-270220/
2. “Russia's economy shrinks by less than expected” BBC, 20 Feb. 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64708832
3. “Russian economy contracts by 2.1% in 2022: Rosstat” Moneycontrol, 20 Feb. 2023, https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/russian-economy-contracts-by-2-1-in-2022-rosstat-10131571.html
4. “Russian Economy Shrank 2.1% Last Year, Less Than Once Expected” Bloomberg, 20 Feb. 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-20/russian-economy-shrank-2-1-last-year-less-than-once-expected
