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    US Treasury Yields Rise After Fed Chairman Powell’s Promise of a Pivot


    On Monday, the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) rose by 8 basis points to 3.61%, following a 14-basis-point jump on Friday.[0] This brings the 10-year yield up 25 basis points since Wednesday, the day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke. The US 2-Year Treasury yield (US2Y) has also risen by 37 basis points since the close on Thursday, including 11 basis points today and 20 basis points on Friday, to 4.41%.[1]

    The two-year yield is now above its 100-day moving average, and the 2s10s spread has widened to its most inverted level since the early 80s at -87bp.[2] This suggests that markets are betting on the Fed pushing higher after last Friday's strong jobs numbers. US equities also opened higher but declined through the day, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ both around 0.5-0.7% lower.

    Investors have assessed the outlook for inflation and monetary policy based on economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials.[0] Powell's slumped posture and soft voice, as he struggled to politely answer the same leading questions, has been interpreted as a promise of a pivot.[3]

    0. “10-year Treasury yield rises, traders look ahead to key U.S. inflation data” CNBC, 10 Feb. 2023,

    1. “Treasury ETFs slide as yields spike after explosive payrolls report” Seeking Alpha, 6 Feb. 2023,

    2. “Mixed messages yet a clear one from bond yields” Forex Factory, 9 Feb. 2023,

    3. “Delayed Reaction? 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Jump, Mortgage Rates Spike 40 Basis Points in Two Days to …” WOLF STREET, 6 Feb. 2023,

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